11.2021
Flow the crisis at Evergrande, which is the second largest property developer in China according to sales. It is ranked as the overall 122nd largest company in the world. Even though it is headquartered in the Houhai Financial Center in the Nanshan District, Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, People's Republic of China, Its true incorporation is in the Cayman Islands, which is a British Overseas Territory. We have a small investment with them, enough that we have an insight to what is happening. Discussion today involved developing an understanding of the $8 billion worth of interest payments and principle repayments owed on offshore issued bonds that are coming due over the next year. There is concern about these repayments, given that there are unsubstantiated reports that the Chinese government has ordered company founder, Xu Jiayin, to pay those debts off using his personal fortune, if he is unable to secure the repayments through the company itself. His total net-worth is only rated at $7.2 billion, which wouldn't cover total debt. If he truly has been ordered to pay the debts, it brings clarity to reports that company assets are being sold at a frenzied pace to pay the debts. The company even told employees that they wouldn't receive their bonus payments, unless they were willing to loan part of them as cash back to the company. This is generating a great deal of buzz and even the U.S. Federal Reserve has cautioned investors to stay clear of the company. Evergrande is China's most indebted developer and has some $300 billion in total liabilities. With the roller coaster valuation of property values in China and around the world, it is unclear how much collateral valuation is available if Evergrande can't keep its debt structure from collapsing. The Chinese government is certainly concerned, which is why they have ordered Mr. Xu Jiayin to personally pay the debts. Chinese property valuation is tied through the global system to every region. A collapse of Evergrande will have tsunami wave ripple effects across global property values with contagion felt in the main street economy. This is because property wealth is the largest portion of wealth for the Middle Class around the world and no government is in a position to provide a bailout. My advise to my FB friends is to hold tight and not make any radical moves with investments, especially when you begin to hear reports of trouble in the markets. Pay off credit card debt and don't take on any new debt if you can avoid it. Hold tight and wait for the storm to pass. Now is a time to close the shutters and secure your position.
11.2021
The Communist government is extremely concerned, because even they realise that power in any society is ultimately in the hands of the people. Since Nixon's visit in the 1970's, there has been a push by the government to develop what the consider to be Market Socialism. They have worked hard to develop a middle class and a small class or wealthy investors, while still maintaining Communism behind the scenes. Because growth has been phenomenal and living standards have increased, they have been able to get away with it. Their problem lies in the fact that only 500 million out of a population of 1.5 billion are actually participating in that new prosperity. As long as they keep hope alive that the other 1 billion will eventually also participate, the government is secure. If that hope dies, the government is in trouble.
Behind the scenes they are terrified. This means that China will have to make a bold move to distract away from the crisis if it intensifies. With the power vacuum left by the U.S. withdrawing from overseas commitments, in favour of focusing on internal social issues, China must believe the time is ripe to make a move on Taiwan. They would be foolish not to. They no doubt believe that ultimately the move won't be opposed by the U.S., Europe, or Russia, even though there will be some initial saber rattling. If assurances are given that the flow of computer chips and rare earth materials won't be interrupted, China feels the world will back away and let Taiwan go. With the world weakened by the 18 month health crisis, they could be right. Life never goes according to plan, however, so how this would play out is uncertain. I do expect some type of move from China; at this point they almost have to make one. I see storm clouds gathering.
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......11/2021
The Communist government is extremely concerned, because even they realise that power in any society is ultimately in the hands of the people. Since Nixon's visit in the 1970's, there has been a push by the government to develop what the consider to be Market Socialism. They have worked hard to develop a middle class and a small class or wealthy investors, while still maintaining Communism behind the scenes. Because growth has been phenomenal and living standards have increased, they have been able to get away with it. Their problem lies in the fact that only 500 million out of a population of 1.5 billion are actually participating in that new prosperity. As long as they keep hope alive that the other 1 billion will eventually also participate, the government is secure. If that hope dies, the government is in trouble.
Behind the scenes they are terrified. This means that China will have to make a bold move to distract away from the crisis if it intensifies. With the power vacuum left by the U.S. withdrawing from overseas commitments, in favour of focusing on internal social issues, China must believe the time is ripe to make a move on Taiwan. They would be foolish not to. They no doubt believe that ultimately the move won't be opposed by the U.S., Europe, or Russia, even though there will be some initial saber rattling. If assurances are given that the flow of computer chips and rare earth materials won't be interrupted, China feels the world will back away and let Taiwan go. With the world weakened by the 18 month health crisis, they could be right. Life never goes according to plan, however, so how this would play out is uncertain. I do expect some type of move from China; at this point they almost have to make one. I see storm clouds gathering.
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Currency Cycles ... Global
The Communist government is extremely concerned, because even they realise that power in any society is ultimately in the hands of the people. Since Nixon's visit in the 1970's, there has been a push by the government to develop what they consider to be Market Socialism. They have worked hard to develop a middle class and a small class or wealthy investors, while still maintaining Communism behind the scenes. Because growth has been phenomenal and living standards have increased, they have been able to get away with it. Their problem lies in the fact that only 500 million out of a population of 1.5 billion are actually participating in that new prosperity. As long as they keep hope alive that the other 1 billion will eventually also participate, the government is secure. If that hope dies, the government is in trouble.
Behind the scenes they are terrified. This means that China will have to make a bold move to distract away from the crisis if it intensifies. With the power vacuum left by the U.S. withdrawing from overseas commitments, in favour of focusing on internal social issues, China must believe the time is ripe to make a move on Taiwan. They would be foolish not to. They no doubt believe that ultimately the move won't be opposed by the U.S., Europe, or Russia, even though there will be some initial saber rattling. If assurances are given that the flow of computer chips and rare earth materials won't be interrupted, China feels the world will back away and let Taiwan go. With the world weakened by the 18 month health crisis, they could be right. Life never goes according to plan, however, so how this would play out is uncertain. I do expect some type of move from China; at this point they almost have to make one. I see storm clouds gathering.
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Further on monetary issues..
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The Communist government is extremely concerned, because even they realise that power in any society is ultimately in the hands of the people. Since Nixon's visit in the 1970's, there has been a push by the government to develop what the consider to be Market Socialism. They have worked hard to develop a middle class and a small class or wealthy investors, while still maintaining Communism behind the scenes. Because growth has been phenomenal and living standards have increased, they have been able to get away with it. Their problem lies in the fact that only 500 million out of a population of 1.5 billion are actually participating in that new prosperity. As long as they keep hope alive that the other 1 billion will eventually also participate, the government is secure. If that hope dies, the government is in trouble.
Behind the scenes they are terrified. This means that China will have to make a bold move to distract away from the crisis if it intensifies. With the power vacuum left by the U.S. withdrawing from overseas commitments, in favour of focusing on internal social issues, China must believe the time is ripe to make a move on Taiwan. They would be foolish not to. They no doubt believe that ultimately the move won't be opposed by the U.S., Europe, or Russia, even though there will be some initial saber rattling. If assurances are given that the flow of computer chips and rare earth materials won't be interrupted, China feels the world will back away and let Taiwan go. With the world weakened by the 18 month health crisis, they could be right. Life never goes according to plan, however, so how this would play out is uncertain. I do expect some type of move from China; at this point they almost have to make one. I see storm clouds gathering.
Liquidity...
This is the biggest story out there, because so many other issues lead back to it. The logistics crisis has roots in this problem. The move by governments around the world to pass massive spending bills in a hurry, even though the money from previous spending bills hadn't been fully used, is also rooted in this. Governments are trying to provide as much liquidity as possible in every corner of their economies, knowing a collapse and its ripple effect could dry up liquidity and bring the global economy to a halt. It is like trying to overfill the oil in your motor car engine, hoping your don't blow the seals, because you are afraid the drain plug will pop off and the engine will seize up due to lack of oil. Once an engine is seized up, a major rebuild is required. If the seals blow, a rebuild will always be required. The question is, If the plug pops out, how much oil do you keep adding add to keep it from seizing? This is where we are at. Certainly a precarious time to be living through.
Cycles ...Central Banks
The plan for currency cycles and conversion was envisioned two centuries ago. The plan was that a country would have a private central bank operating independent of the public treasury, that would run a balance sheet to facilitate the expansion and contraction of the country's money supply. The central bank would also have control over interest rates and balance of payment transfers, to use as levers to control valuation and therefore everything touched by valuation, which essentially is everything in life.
An important function of a central bank is to control the issuing of currency and controlling its use and duration. A currency has a 125 year shelf life, running through 5 phases of 25 years, with particular characteristics attributed to each phase. The Bank of England was first. It ran its first currency cycle starting in 1850, with a projected end date of 1975. Even with the wars and change of status in Britain, the cycle held true and conversion happened on 15th February 1971. In the U.S. the first cycle started in 1915 with a projected end date of 2040. This is also holding close to true, with a shortening of the 5th phase (2015 -2040) determined to be in the best interest of economic zone creation in North America. The USMCA successfully set the stage, and the health crisis over the last 18 months has brought better parity between the three North American countries, so moves have been made to begin the conversion process. I personally believe this to be a mistake, because the essential tensions between opposing forces of those that advocate free market globalism (like me), and those that advocate market socialist globalism, have not been resolved. This proved a serious problem with the creation of MENA (Middle Eastern North Africans economic zone) and should have been a reason to delay the creation of the North American economic zone.
Currency conversion is the process of restructuring a currency, resetting its valuation, and resolving the debt issues of the previous currency so that the new currency has a fresh start.
As part of currency conversion the balance sheet at the central bank is flushed, as part of realigning valuation. The debt doesn't really belong to anyone, it is supposed to be held in special non-negotiable treasury instruments specifically designed for this purpose. It allows the move on and off the balance sheet to act as a way the money supply can be expanded and contracted. There are a small number of other debts allowed onto the sheet, but that is supposed to be kept to a minimum. When debt is monetised, which means the central bank buys the debt, it moves onto the sheet. Since 2002 in the U.S. there has been a disturbing trend of other debt being absorbed onto the sheet, that won't be as easy to flush. There is also debt held by the Treasury that would not be able to be flushed. That is why, out of approximately $28 trillion in hard debt, only $17 or $18 trillion is flushable at this point, with perhaps $10 trillion remaining to be folded into the new debt obligations of the new currency. Significantly better, but not ideal. The Treasury currently holds around $1.5 trillion in student loan obligations, for example. There is still $100 billion held by the Treasury from the collapse of the Savings & Loan Industry in the 80's. There is debt held from debt write-offs the U.S. granted to foreign countries for money they borrowed from the U.S. in World War Two. So currency conversion would leave some debts, but there would be significant relief.
Unfortunately, this flush will not happen in the near future.
The reason for that is the push by the current administration to add massive levels of new debt, with much of that debt being hardened debt, which is non-flushable. It is understood that opening up available credit for this administration would be the recipe for creating a real debt crisis, with structural implications. Also, the other two countries on the North American continent would be unlikely to broker a deal for currency combination, with massive new debt pending. To try and smooth this over there is a push by the market socialists to institute a 15% transnational tax on corporations. They feel if they submerge the system is a sea of temporary liquidity, they can broker the deal, convert and combine the currencies, and pass the problem on to future currency cycles and generations. This is part of the unresolved tension between market socialist globalists and free market globalists. For the moment, the momentum is with the market socialists and free marketers like me are playing a rear guard action. We have the resources to protect ourselves, for now, but not to push for change in our favour. I pray we can hold fast, but the situation is quite tenuous.
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...... 11.2021
Hong Kong
The problem with Hong Kong is that the so-called democracy movement has been hijacked by an alliance of wealthy real estate moguls and radical left wing activists. I am unwilling to put Hong Kong in the hands of the likes of Jimmy Sham Tsz-kit and his CHRF and wealthy property investor backers. The concept of lam chau is exactly the wrong approach for Hong Kong, especially since we know that in 2047 the transition is over anyway. You are correct, the protests and response seriously damaged the credibility of the Hang Seng Index, but in doing so also removed another networking link and its ability to moderate CCP policy and activities. I see the opposition movement as cut from the same cloth as the CCP, it is merely a matter of flavour, and the fact that they visit Nancy Pelosi for photo ops and support confirms that.
The focus in containing China's overseas ambitions should be in the South China Sea, which was an area of focus of mine for 20 years. The massive oil reserves there, that rightfully belong split between the other nations in the region, are the real prize in all of this. I would rather see an energy independent Philippines and Malaysia rather than CCP control over even more natural resources. It is self-serving to big oil to an extent, since it stands to profit more from Philippine and Malaysian control over South China Sea resource development in offshore oil fields adjacent to their borders, but it is also in the interest of those countries to control their own energy destiny instead of having it controlled by the CCP. This is where the real focus should be.
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